Election Projections: How We Got Here and Where We’re Heading

Clyde Tucker

Senior Survey Methodologist

 Bureau of Labor Statistics

Abstract

The importance of election projections in the American political system became dramatically apparent in the 2000 Presidential Election.  Although election projections have been a staple of Election Night broadcasts for fifty years, interest in the intricacies of this arcane art greatly increased in the aftermath of the incorrect calls in Florida in 2000.  This presentation begins by revisiting what happened on Election Night in both 2000 and 2004.  That introduction will be followed by a history of the development of statistical methods for projecting elections over the half century prior to the 2000 election.  Then improvements made in those methods since 2000 will be discussed.  The presentation will conclude with some thoughts on experiences from the 2008 Presidential primaries and speculation about the future of election projections.